High auroral activity is in the forecast for this weekend, according to projections from the Alaska Geophysical Institute at the University of Alaska Fairbanks.
Friday’s forecast shows high activity measured at Kp 5, while Saturday and Sunday are being shown as Kp 6. The Kp index is a system of measuring aurora strength, with anything Kp 5 and above classified as a geomagnetic storm.
Saturday and Sunday’s potential activity are predicted to include “highly active auroral displays will be visible overhead from Utqiagvik [Barrow] to as far south as Kodiak and King Salmon.”
But a strong show depends on the weather. Current forecasts predict a cloudy weekend, National Weather Service Fairbanks meteorologist Dakari Anderson said.
“We are looking pretty cloudy this weekend,” Anderson said. “We could have gaps in the clouds so people can keep an eye on the forecast.”
For those willing to travel out of Fairbanks, he said the best chance for a break would be southwest or southeast of Fairbanks on the Parks Highway and north/northwest of Fairbanks Sunday night, heading up the Dalton or Steese highways.
Monday and Tuesday still have a high level of auroral activity, with forecasts listed at Kp 5.
“Monday night looks better for us and might the best shot,” Anderson said. “It could be clear basically in the Middle Tanana Valley area from Fairbanks to Delta Junction.”
Don Hampton, a research associate professor at the Geophysical Institute, said a similar activity occurred last month due to high solar winds.
“When that occurs, there’s lot more energy in the solar wind, and it tends to create more active aurora at the time,” Hampton said.
He said it’s similar to a water sprinkler effect “where the sun goes around every 27 days” and creates the chance of an energetic aurora borealis seen in the previous month.
Hampton said based on the sun’s current cycle “we’re going to get more and more aurora on a regular basis.”
“As we get closer to a solar maximum, there are are more areas on the sun where it generates the solar wind needed to create the larger storms,” Hampton said.
Hampton added anything classified as a Kp 4 or higher is pretty good for Fairbanks “where you see aurora right overhead.”
A Kp 6 aurora “tends to show up earlier in the evening,” Hampton said.
“Now that’s it getting darker sooner, you can see it around 10 p.m. or so, but it might not still be the brightest aurora of the night,” Hampton said.
Contact reporter Jack Barnwell at 907-459-7587 or jbarnwell@newsminer.com.
