All Reports
1Q 2022

Market Data: Automated Trucks and Buses

Global Deployment Forecasts for Level 4 Medium and Heavy Duty Commercial vehicles

Significant progress continues to be made year-over-year in the maturation of automated driving systems (ADS). However, the challenge of developing ADS that can operate safely, in all the same conditions that human drivers do every day, remains incomplete and is extremely difficult to validate. As a result, virtually all ADS developers are focused on relatively narrow operational design domains (ODD) in which an ADS can be demonstrated to function safely and reliably. Part of the drive for narrower ODDs is so that the technology can start to be commercialized and start realizing some return on the tens of billions of dollars that have already been invested in ADS over the past decade.

A key ODD that many feel can be reliably commercialized, relatively soon, is commercial vehicles, particularly those that carry goods in the middle-mile and long-haul domain. Recruiting human drivers for what is an often grueling and tedious job has become increasingly difficult. The nature of the ODD, with its generally predictable routes, also makes it well suited to automation with little risk of running the deadhead miles that are inherent in passenger-carrying robotaxis. While some of the smaller ADS developers have shut down or been acquired over the past two years, those that remain have demonstrated real potential for commercializing this technology. Some have already begun driver-out demonstrations and are generating revenue from pilot customers. Broader commercialization is expected from around 2024.

This Guidehouse Insights report provides projections of the size of global and regional markets for medium- and heavy-duty commercial vehicles in various segments with highly automated driving capability.

Pages 25
Tables | Charts | Figures 31
  • When will the first automated driving commercial vehicles come to market?
  • How fast will annual sales grow for automated medium- and heavy-duty commercial vehicles?
  • How quickly will world regions adopt automated driving commercial vehicles?
  • Which market segments will see automated driving adoption?
  • Which types of commercial vehicles are most likely to see market adoption of ADS?
  • Fleet managers
  • Truck and bus OEMs
  • Automotive industry suppliers
  • Automated driving developers
  • Mobility and transportation service platform providers and operators
  • Insurance companies
  • Government agencies
  • City managers
  • Investor community

1. Executive Summary

1.1    Market Overview

1.2    Scope

1.3    Market Forecasts

2. Market Issues

2.1    Truck and Bus Classifications

2.1.1   Goods Delivery Vans

2.1.2   Rigid Trucks

2.1.3   Tractor Trucks

2.1.4   Transit and Coach Buses

2.1.5   Shuttle Buses

2.2    Technology

2.3    Market Drivers

2.4    Market Challenges

3. Market Forecasts

3.1    Introduction

3.2    Data Assumptions and Methodology

3.3    Global Medium and Heavy-Duty Vehicle Market

3.4    Automated Truck and Bus Forecasts

3.4.1   Goods Delivery Vans

3.4.2   Rigid Trucks

3.4.3   Tractor Trucks

3.4.4   Transit and Coach Buses

3.4.5   Shuttle Buses

3.5    Conclusions and Recommendations

4. Acronym and Abbreviation List

5. Table of Contents

6. Table of Charts and Figures

7. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

  • Automated Truck and Bus Deployments by Region, World Markets: 2022-2032
  • MHCV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2022-2032
  • Automated Truck and Bus Market Share by Region, World Markets: 2022-2032
  • Goods Delivery Van AV Deployments by Region, World Markets: 2022-2032
  • Rigid Truck AV Deployments by Region, World Markets: 2022-2032
  • Tractor Truck AV Deployments by Region, World Markets: 2022-2032
  • Transit and Coach Bus AV Deployments by Region, World Markets: 2022-2032
  • Shuttle Bus AV Deployments by Region, World Markets: 2022-2032
  • Udelv Transporter
  • Prototype Isuzu Box Truck Equipped with Gatik ADS
  • TuSimple Automated Tractor Truck
  • New Flyer Excelsior AV Automated transit bus
  • Regional Forecast Segmentations
  • MHCV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2022-2032
  • Goods Delivery Van Sales by Region, World Markets: 2022-2032
  • Rigid Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2022-2032
  • Tractor Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2022-2032
  • Transit and Coach Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2022-2032
  • Shuttle Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2022-2032
  • Goods Delivery Van AV Deployments by Region, World Markets: 2022-2032
  • Rigid Truck AV Deployments by Region, World Markets: 2022-2032
  • Tractor Truck AV Deployments by Region, World Markets: 2022-2032
  • Transit and Coach Bus AV Deployments by Region, World Markets: 2022-2032
  • Shuttle Bus AV Deployments by Region, World Markets: 2022-2032
  • Goods Delivery Van Market Share by Region, World Markets: 2022-2032
  • Rigid Truck Market Share by Region, World Markets: 2022-2032
  • Tractor Truck Market Share by Region, World Markets: 2022-2032
  • Transit and Coach Bus Market Share by Region, World Markets: 2022-2032
  • Shuttle Bus Market Share by Region, World Markets: 2022-2032
  • Automated Truck and Bus Deployments by Region, World Markets: 2022-2032
  • Automated Truck and Bus Market Share by Region, World Markets: 2022-2032
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