Election results, 2022: Incumbent win rates by state
Updated March 16, 2023
This content is part of Ballotpedia's analysis of the 2022 elections. For comprehensive election results, click here.
Ballotpedia covered all state races on November 8, 2022, as well as local elections in America's 100 largest cities by population. In the 2022 general election, an average of 94% of incumbents nationwide won their re-election bids.[1]
Comparatively, in the 2021 general election, 86% of incumbents nationwide won their re-election bids. In the 2020 November election, 93% of incumbents were successful.
- The incumbent win rate remained at or above 90% in all but nine states—Alaska, California, Louisiana, Nevada, New Jersey, North Dakota, Ohio, Virginia, and West Virginia.
- The lowest overall incumbent win rate was in Virginia with 77%. Delaware and Mississippi were the only states to see a 100% incumbent win rate.
- Congressional incumbents had a 98% win rate. Forty-one states had a 100% win rate in congressional races.
- State-level incumbents had a 96% win rate. Four states had a 100% win rate in state-level races.
- State legislative incumbents had a 96% average win rate.
- Local-level incumbents had an 89% average win rate. Twelve states had a 100% win rate in local-level races.
- Local legislative incumbents saw an average incumbent win rate of 83%.
The analysis below includes data compiled by Ballotpedia on the 7,662 incumbents who ran for re-election on November 8, 2022.
Win rates by state
The table below shows the win rate for each state and office type. Click on a header to sort the table by that column:
The map below highlights each state based on its incumbent win rate.
Comparison to previous even-year elections
2020
This content is part of Ballotpedia's analysis of the 2020 elections. For comprehensive election results, click here.
Ballotpedia covered all state races on November 3, 2020, as well as local elections in America's 100 largest cities by population. In the 2020 general election, 93% of incumbents nationwide won their re-election bids. This percentage includes races in which incumbents ran unopposed but does not include recall elections.
- The incumbent win rate remained at or above 90% in all states but California, New Hampshire, Ohio, and West Virginia.
- The lowest overall incumbent win rate was in California with 85%. New Jersey was the only state to see a 100% incumbent win rate.
- Congressional incumbents had a 96% win rate. Thirty-eight states had a 100% win rate in congressional races.
- State-level incumbents had a 95% win rate. Five states had a 100% win rate in state-level races.
- Local-level incumbents had an 89% average win rate. Eight states had a 100% win rate in local-level races.
The analysis below includes data compiled by Ballotpedia on the 7,636 incumbents who ran for re-election on November 3, 2020.
The table below shows the win rate for each state and election type:
| Incumbent win rate by state in the general election on November 3, 2020 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Incumbent win rate |
Congress | State executive |
State legislative |
State judicial |
Local | |
| Alaska | 97% | 100% | - | 95% | 100% | 100% | |
| Alabama | 94% | 83% | 100% | - | 100% | 94% | |
| Arkansas | 95% | 100% | - | 95% | - | - | |
| Arizona | 93% | 90% | 100% | 96% | 100% | 92% | |
| California | 85% | 94% | - | 98% | - | 80% | |
| Colorado | 95% | 86% | 100% | 97% | 100% | 94% | |
| Connecticut | 95% | 100% | - | 95% | - | - | |
| Delaware | 96% | 100% | 100% | 96% | - | - | |
| Florida | 96% | 92% | - | 96% | 100% | 95% | |
| Georgia | 97% | 100% | 100% | 98% | - | 93% | |
| Hawaii | 97% | 100% | 50% | 100% | - | - | |
| Iowa | 93% | 67% | - | 93% | 100% | - | |
| Idaho | 96% | 100% | - | 98% | - | 89% | |
| Illinois | 96% | 100% | - | 94% | 90% | 97% | |
| Indiana | 93% | 100% | 100% | 94% | 100% | 89% | |
| Kansas | 95% | 100% | 75% | 96% | 100% | 92% | |
| Kentucky | 93% | 100% | - | 93% | 100% | 93% | |
| Louisiana | 94% | 100% | 100% | - | 100% | 92% | |
| Massachusetts | 99% | 100% | 100% | 99% | - | 100% | |
| Maryland | 92% | 100% | - | - | 100% | 88% | |
| Maine | 92% | 100% | - | 92% | - | - | |
| Michigan | 97% | 100% | 50% | 98% | 100% | 97% | |
| Minnesota | 95% | 89% | - | 95% | 100% | 98% | |
| Missouri | 99% | 100% | 100% | 99% | 100% | 100% | |
| Mississippi | 90% | 100% | - | - | 100% | 0% | |
| Montana | 93% | 100% | 100% | 92% | 100% | - | |
| North Carolina | 93% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 20% | 93% | |
| North Dakota | 96% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 100% | - | |
| Nebraska | 93% | 100% | 100% | 89% | 100% | 92% | |
| New Hampshire | 89% | 100% | 50% | 89% | - | - | |
| New Jersey | 100% | 100% | - | 100% | - | 100% | |
| New Mexico | 93% | 50% | 50% | 96% | 100% | 91% | |
| Nevada | 90% | 100% | 0% | 92% | 100% | 89% | |
| New York | 96% | 91% | - | 97% | - | 100% | |
| Ohio | 87% | 100% | 67% | 96% | 68% | 78% | |
| Oklahoma | 90% | 83% | 100% | 89% | 100% | 88% | |
| Oregon | 95% | 100% | 100% | 97% | 100% | 78% | |
| Pennsylvania | 97% | 100% | 50% | 98% | - | - | |
| Rhode Island | 97% | 100% | - | 97% | - | - | |
| South Carolina | 93% | 88% | - | 97% | - | 56% | |
| South Dakota | 95% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 100% | - | |
| Tennessee | 98% | 100% | - | 98% | - | - | |
| Texas | 90% | 100% | 100% | 98% | 73% | 86% | |
| Utah | 97% | 67% | 100% | 99% | 100% | 94% | |
| Virginia | 94% | 100% | - | - | - | 100% | |
| Vermont | 94% | 100% | 100% | 94% | - | - | |
| Washington | 96% | 100% | 88% | 95% | 100% | 100% | |
| Wisconsin | 97% | 100% | - | 97% | - | 100% | |
| West Virginia | 87% | 100% | 83% | 87% | - | - | |
| Wyoming | 95% | 100% | - | 94% | 100% | - | |
| Average | 93% | 96% | 88% | 95% | 92% | 89% | |
2020 Map
2018
This content is part of Ballotpedia's analysis of the 2018 midterm elections. For comprehensive election results, click here.
Ballotpedia covered all federal and state races on November 6, 2018, as well as local elections in America's 100 largest cities by population. In the 2018 general election, an average of 92 percent of incumbents nationwide won their re-election bids. This percentage includes races in which incumbents ran unopposed.
Incumbents had the lowest win rates in Texas, holding their seats in 81 percent of races. In just one state, Mississippi, 100 percent of incumbents held their seats.
The table below shows the win rate for each state:
| 2018 incumbent win rate by state | |
|---|---|
| State | Incumbent win rate |
| Alabama | 96% |
| Alaska | 88% |
| Arizona | 91% |
| Arkansas | 95% |
| California | 85% |
| Colorado | 90% |
| Connecticut | 91% |
| Delaware | 92% |
| Florida | 94% |
| Georgia | 95% |
| Hawaii | 98% |
| Idaho | 93% |
| Illinois | 93% |
| Indiana | 95% |
| Iowa | 91% |
| Kansas | 92% |
| Kentucky | 88% |
| Louisiana | 91% |
| Maine | 91% |
| Maryland | 93% |
| Massachusetts | 98% |
| Michigan | 92% |
| Minnesota | 87% |
| Mississippi | 100% |
| Missouri | 97% |
| Montana | 97% |
| Nebraska | 92% |
| Nevada | 87% |
| New Hampshire | 83% |
| New Jersey | 89% |
| New Mexico | 83% |
| New York | 90% |
| North Carolina | 87% |
| North Dakota | 93% |
| Ohio | 92% |
| Oklahoma | 93% |
| Oregon | 97% |
| Pennsylvania | 94% |
| Rhode Island | 96% |
| South Carolina | 98% |
| South Dakota | 95% |
| Tennessee | 97% |
| Texas | 81% |
| Utah | 95% |
| Vermont | 94% |
| Virginia | 86% |
| Washington | 94% |
| West Virginia | 86% |
| Wisconsin | 96% |
| Wyoming | 94% |
| District of Columbia | 93% |
2018 Map
See also
- Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2022
- Election results, 2022: Uncontested races by state
- Election results, 2022: State government trifectas
- Election results, 2022: State government triplexes
- State executive official elections, 2022
- State legislative elections, 2022
- State judicial elections, 2022
- United States municipal elections, 2022
Footnotes
- ↑ This percentage includes races in which incumbents ran unopposed and does not include recall elections.
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